Analysis of the overall competition in the wine industry

At present, wine consumption in China is still constrained by many factors, such as the homogenization of wine, the lack of attention to the mix of diet, high quality and low price, which are not conducive to the formation and dissemination of wine culture. However, the good news is that while exploring the Chinese wine culture, the Chinese people are gradually absorbing the essence of Western wine culture, such as exploring the profound Chinese cuisine and wine mix, and advocating healthy drinking.

(I) Accumulated output growth rate of 16.90% in January-December 2012 From January to December 2012, the cumulative output of China's wine industry was 1.816 million kiloliters, a year-on-year increase of 16.90%. As for the cumulative output growth rate, it has increased by 3.87 percentage points over the same period of last year. Among them, the monthly output in November reached 174,600 kilolitres, a year-on-year growth rate of 40.44% (a significant increase of 30.24 percentage points over the same period of last year).

In January-November 2012, the cumulative output of China's wine industry was 1,126,600,000 liters, a year-on-year increase of 15.73%. As for the cumulative output growth rate, it has increased by 1.8 percentage points over the same period of last year. Among them, the monthly output in November alone reached 348,800 kiloliters, a year-on-year growth rate of 4.43% (22.83 percentage points less than the same period of last year).

In the month of December, the growth rate of production increased substantially, and the cumulative growth rate still showed positive growth. In the 5 months of 2012, the output growth rate remained high at around 30% for a total of four months, showing a relatively good peak season (the Mid-Autumn National Day). Since September, the monthly output growth rate has continued to fall from the previous month, but the output growth rate has rebounded sharply to 40% in December. Except that the base figure of the same period last year was relatively low, it was mainly due to stockpiling during the peak season before the Spring Festival.

(II) The growth rate of income in the first 11 months was 10.78%, and the profit growth rate was 2.05%. In November 2012, the industry revenue and profit growth rate both rebounded. In the first 11 months of 2012, China's wine industry realized revenue of 36.128 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.78%, and a total profit of 4.364 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.05%.

It is worth noting that according to the historical data of the Bureau of Statistics, the accumulative growth rate of total profits since 2011 has been significantly higher than that of income growth, but the total profit growth for 2011 has dropped to 13.96%, which is lower than the growth rate of 7.18pct; This situation continued in the first 11 months of 2012, and the total profit growth rate was once again lower than the revenue growth rate of 8.73 pct (4.80 pct in the previous October), indicating that the industry is in a sluggish economy and competition has been dragging on profits.

Observe that this difference has been narrowed from September to October since June reached the maximum value (-10.26pct), and in November it was again amplified to -8.73 pct. We believe that the September-October change should influence the product structure of the Mid-Autumn National Day and the peak season, but we cannot yet conclude that the competition in the industry has slowed down.