Food and drink appear "polarization"

Reviewing the overall performance of the food and beverage sector in the first half of the year, Shenyin Wanguo Research believes that dairy products and meat products perform well. Among them, the dairy products and meat products industry received significant excess returns from January to March and from June to July; the liquor and wine industries significantly underperformed the market in January, March and July. “The reason why the wine sector was underperformed in January was due to the vigorous rectification of public funds, food and drink, and the weaker performance in March was due to concerns that the quarterly report was not satisfactory. The reason for underperforming the broader market in July was that the rate of increase in semi-annual report was more pronounced than that in one quarterly report. Slow down," Shen Wan said.

Wind data shows that from the beginning of the year to August 6th, the food and beverage sector decreased by 4.66%, of which, Beinmei (002570, stocks) has risen by 132.91%, and Bright Dairy (600597, stocks) has risen by 104.30%, ranking top among gainers. Two; while alcoholic liquor (000,799, stocks) fell 44.54%, Shanxi Fenji (600,809, stocks) fell 43.78%, the largest decline.

“The adjustment period for the liquor industry is still continuing.” Huang Xiao, analyst at CITIC Securities, said that if more alcohol restrictions were introduced throughout the country, it would have an impact on sales.

Chang Yong Securities analyst Zhang Yong also believes that from the overall situation of listed companies in the brewing sector, the first-line liquor is actively adjusted, and the risk of second and third-tier liquor is far from being released. Under the condition of deteriorating fundamentals, the industry's valuation is also difficult to increase. The income and profitability of the wine industry are also deteriorating and the industry is facing deep adjustments. By comparison, the profitability of the beer industry has been enhanced by the generally stable cost of barley. The total industry profits increased by 36% between January and May, faster than the growth rate of income.

It is worth noting that, under the background of national policies encouraging the increase of industrial concentration, mergers and acquisitions and the integration of international resources have become the outstanding characteristics of listed companies in the first half of the year. In February of this year, Sanquan Foods wholly acquired Longfeng Foods; in May, Mengniu Dairy became the largest single shareholder of Modern Livestock; during the same period, Shuanghui International offered to acquire all the shares issued by Smithfield, worth approximately 7.1 billion yuan. USD (approximately RMB 43.7 billion); in June, Mengniu Dairy Premium acquired 9.8% of Yashili.

Under the above-mentioned positive effect, some food companies forecast the situation is more optimistic. Among them, Shuanghui Development (000895, stocks) is expected to achieve net profit of 1.63 billion yuan to 1.7 billion yuan, up 59.08% from the same period last year to 65.92%; Tomson BJ (300146, stock it) is expected to achieve a net profit of 223 million yuan to 241 million yuan, an increase of 24% to 34% over the same period of last year. Bein America expects to achieve a net profit of 320 million yuan to 420 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0% to 110%; Sanquan Foods expects its interim net profit to increase by 25% to 30%; Chengde Lulu (000848, stocks) is expected to achieve a net profit of 190 million yuan to 210 million yuan, an increase of 50.16% to 65.97%.

From the recently disclosed second-quarter report of the fund, it can be found that in the second quarter, the proportion of food and beverage accounted for 11.72% of the industries with heavy funds, which is only 17.19% of that of medical organisms. Compared with the end of the first quarter, the partial stock funds of the end of the second quarter Among the increased holdings, food and beverages also topped the list, accounting for 1.62% of the total, just after 2.86% of information services.